长三角地区可持续发展测度与演化分析

EVALUATION AND EVOLUTION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

长三角地区作为我国人口最为密集、经济最为发达、综合竞争力最强的城市化区域,同时也面临着产业结构趋同、人口老龄化、资源环境脆弱性凸显等问题。以长三角地区为研究对象,建立可持续发展评价的指标体系,引入可持续发展指数和系统协调指数对长三角地区城市可持续发展进行测度,通过细分城市发展模式并利用演化树模型分析不同发展模式的可持续发展演化进程。研究认为:长三角地区城市可持续发展总体水平接近,城市之间系统内部协调性差距较大,子系统中经济与社会发展格局较为一致,而与环境状况趋异;以人均收入、城市化率和三产结构可以将长三角地区城市聚类为4种具有不同现状特点和发展轨迹的城市发展模式,归属不同发展模式的城市可持续发展的演化轨迹不同,以苏锡常地区为代表的发展模式可持续发展变化最为剧烈,发展与协调并重是关键;苏中、浙中地区等经济发展的边缘地带,寻求适合的经济发展路径是其首要任务。

Yangtze River Delta is the most developed urbanized area with the highest population density, the most developed economy and the strongest competitiveness in China, however, it is faced with so many problems such as industrial structure convergence, population aging, weak resources and environment et al. In this paper, the assessment indicator system of sustainable development including three sun-systems and 22 indicators was built for Yangtze River Delta,and the sustainability index and the system harmony index were used to analyze the level of sustainable development and the system correspondence in this area. The 16 cities were divided into four development patterns based on three factors,the per capita GDP,the urban- ization level and the three-industry in the total GDP,and different development patterns had different de- velopment features and trajectories from 2000 to 2010. The evolution tree model was adopted to analyze the path of sustainable development of cities which belonged to different development patterns from 2000 to 2010 in this paper. The evaluation and evolution results are as follows. The sustainable level of cities in Yangtze River Delta were close to each other,but the system harmony indexes had large gap. The scores of sub-systems had some spatial regulation. The distribution of the economic score and the social score were similar with each other,but the score of resources and environment was totally different from them. There were four development patterns with different characteristics and development path from 2000 to 2010, based on the per capita GDP, the urbanization level and the three-industry in the total GDP. The cities be- longing to different development patterns had different evolution path of sustainable development. Cities of the pattern I such as Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou,which were the core cities of region,had an unsta- ble sustainable development trend. Those system harmony index were not high enough except the continu- ally increasing sustainable level of Hangzhou. Cities of the pattern [[ such as Suzhou, Wuxi and Chang- zhou,had a good development situation, because the sustainability index and the system harmony index were both in a high level and the total sustainability level was improving. In 2010, the level of pattern ]] with ranked the highest place,except Changzhou whose economic strength was behind of the other cities in this pattern. The change of the cities belonging to the pattern ]] from 2000 to 2010 was so violent that cit- ies in other areas with the similar features should focus much attention on the sustainable development. Cit- ies of pattern M and pattern 1V ,which located in the center of Jiangsu province and the center of Zhejiang province, had a low level of sustainability because of the laggard economy. The cities in this area had no ad- vantages to accept the economic radiation from the core cities, and the resources in these cities had gap from the developed cities. So the most important thing for the cities of pattern m and pattern IV is to choose the right way to improve the economy with the environment protected.