基于ESDA的城乡关联时空演变研究——以浙江省为例

SPACE-TIME EVOLVEMENT OF ZHEJIANG URBAN-RURAL ASSOCIATION BASED ON ESDA

以浙江省69个县域行政单元为研究对象，根据城乡关联内涵及特点，构建综合评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法和探索性空间数据分析方法，定量测度浙江省2001～2011年县域城乡关联性，并分析城乡关联时空演变特征及空间关联状态。研究表明：（1）各县域城乡关联综合得分均出现不同程度的增长，表明区域城乡经济社会统筹得到优化；（2）城乡关联空间存在差异，东部沿海平原县域城乡关联性普遍高于西部低山丘陵县域，地级市辖区城乡关联性明显高于各县（县级市）；（3）城乡关联表现出较强的空间集聚特性，城乡关联较强的县域主要分布于长三角环杭州湾地区，城乡关联较弱的县域则集中分布于浙西南低山丘陵区域。在此基础上，提出经济水平发展、交通设施改善、要素联系强化、政策制度优化等4因素为浙江省城乡关联演变的主要动力机制。

The urban-rural association refers to under the relative scarcity of resources, what prompted the different ranks of these resources to implement the most effective configuration and circulation in the com- munity form （especially the city and countryside）. City and countryside as the two most basic geographical units in regional economic and social development, are in close contact with economic, cultural, political and other aspects since their arising. Urban-rural association is a major problem in China＇s urbanization process. The contradictions between the urban and rural, the gap between urban and rural areas and the ＂three rural＂ issues have become an important research direction of disciplines such as geography, sociology and economics. Sixty-nine spatial units of Zhejiang Province are the research object in this paper. According to the meaning and characteristics of rural-urban association, the comprehensive evaluating index system of urban-rural association was constructed. Based on principal component analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis methods,urban-rural association of Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2011 was quantitatively meas- ured, and characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution and spatial association were analyzed. The study results show as follows. （1） Each county＇s urban-rural score showed varying degrees of growth, meaning that urban-rural economic and social co-ordination had been continually optimized. （2） Urban-rural associa- tion showed spatial differences. Urban-rural association of eastern coastal region was generally higher than the western hilly region,and prefecture-level city was significantly higher than county-level city. （3） Rural- urban association exhibited strong characteristics of spatial concentration. The strong association of region located in Hangzhou Bay area of Yangtze River Delta,and weak association of region was concentrated in southwestern Zhejiang hilly area. Finally, urban and rural economic development, road infrastructure im- provement, urban and rural elements contact enhancement, urban and rural policy system optimization were put forward as the urban and rural areas association evolution mechanism of main motive force in Zhejiang Province.