退款保证服务对消费者选择的影响——基于淘宝网消费者保障计划的实证研究

退款保证服务是传统销售模式下一种常见的商业实践。随着网上交易的发展,为解决信息不对称问题,退款保证服务也被广泛应用于网上交易。为了检验退款保证服务对消费者选择的影响,本文选取淘宝网4种不同产品的交易数据,运用probit模型,分析了退款保证服务对不同产品成交概率的差异化影响。结果表明,退款保证服务有利于提高消费者的购买意愿,并且产品价值越高,质量就越难以保证,退款条件越宽松,消费者就越倾向于选择提供退款保证服务的卖家。这一结论对网上交易平台的建设和完善,对买卖双方的理性决策均具有一定的现实意义。

Money Back Guarantee （MBG） is a common business practice. To relieve the information asymmetry, MBG has been applied to online trades widely. This paper empirically analyzes the different effects of MBG on different products using data from Taobao. corn and probit model. The empirical results show that MBG increases consumers＇ willingness to purchase, and moreover, MBG has a greater marginal effect on the purchase of consumers. For the products with higher valuation, more uncertain quality and more flexible back fee terms, consumers tend to choose the sellers who provide MBG service. The conclusion of this study is of practical importance for the construction and improvement of online trading platforms and rational decisions of both buyers and sellers.