投资增长与周期统一模型

The Model on the Coordination of Investment's Increase and Cycle

投资由两个分量组成,第一个分量随着时间t而递增,这是投资增长;第二个分量随着时间t周期性变化,这是投资的周期性波动。因此,投资是一个随着时间在周期性波动(振荡)中增长的量。投资的周期性来源于生产滞后期和投资生产能力形成滞后期,如果缩短这两个滞后期,就可以避免投资的周期性波动,并排除其对经济周期的影响;投资周期的振荡幅度取决于资本积累率,如果将社会资金积累率控制在一个合理范围内,则可将投资周期的振荡幅度控制在可接受的范围内,以保证宏观经济稳定可持续发展。

Investment is composed of two components. One is investment's increase, progressively increasing with time t, and the other is investment's cyclical fluctuation cyclical changing with time t. So, investment is a variable increasing in cyclical fluctuation and oscillation range with time. The cyclical nature of investment originates from the production lag and the generation lag of investment's production capacity. If the two lags are cut down, investment's cyclical fluctuation and its effect on economic cycle can be avoided. The fluctuation range of investment's cycle is determined by the rate of capital accumulation. If the rate of capital accumulation is controlled in a reasonable range, the fluctuation range of investment's cycle can be controlled in an acceptable range in order to ensure macroeconomic stable and sustainable development.