采场底板破坏深度计算公式的改进

Improved on the formula about the depth of damaged floor in working area

针对煤矿开采底板破坏的问题,在总结全国典型煤矿底板破坏深度实测资料的基础上,通过Matlab软件及Excel中的函数分析功能,综合分析了煤层采深、煤层倾角、煤层采厚、工作面斜长、底板抗破坏能力及有无切穿行断层或破碎带等6个影响因子与底板破坏深度的关系,利用多元线性回归分析对规程计算公式进行了改进,将改进的线性公式进行非线性曲线的拟合及预测分析,得到了预测准确度更高的非线性回归修正公式,经过比较分析规程经验公式、线性回归改进公式及非线性回归修正公式对底板破坏深度的预测值与实测数据的误差,发现线性回归改进公式和非线性回归修正公式具有更高的预测能力,而且非线性回归修正公式预测准确度最高,误差范围相对较小,在底板破坏深度预测中具有相对较高的应用价值。

Abstract：Aiming at the problem of floor damage in coal mining, based on the summary of measured data of typical coal floor damage depth nation-wide in China,the relationships between coal floor damage depth and the six influen- cing factors, including mining depth, coal seam dip, mining height, facing length, floor damage resistance ability and the type of faults and crushed zone passed, were analyzed using the function analysis capability in Matlab software and Excel. By using multi-variable linear regression analysis to improve the standard calculation formula, and using im- proved linear formula to conduct non-linear curves fitting and prediction analysis, the modified non-linear regression for- mula were obtained with high prediction accuracy. With the comparisons in computation error between the measured data and the coal floor damage depth predicted using the standard empirical equation,the improved linear regression formula and the modified non-linear regression formula respectively, it was found that the improved linear regression formula and the modified non-linear regression formula provide a higher accuracy in prediction and relatively low error range. Key words ： floor failure depth ; multiple regression ; correlation ; empirical formula