我国服务贸易就业效应的区域差异研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

Study on Regional Difference in Employment Effect of China's Trade in Service Based on Empirical Test of Provincial Panel Data

利用2006—2010年的省级面板数据,将我国划分为东部、中部和西部三大区域,运用系统广义矩估计方法,对服务贸易就业效应的区域差异进行实证研究。结果表明,服务贸易出口对就业具有促进作用,进口对就业具有抑制作用,但是出口对就业的促进效应大于进口对就业的替代效应;较之中部和西部地区,东部地区的出口就业促进效应和进口就业替代效应均最大;国内经济增长对就业具有显著的促进效应,其影响程度存在区域差异,西部地区最大;而工资水平、国有企业就业人数占比对就业会产生负的影响。为促进各地区的均衡就业发展,文章还提出了不同的政策建议。

Using the inter-provincial panel data during the years from 2006 to 2010 dividing China into 3 regions including East China, Middle China and West China, based on the method of Generalized Method of Moments （GMM） estimation, this pa- per studies the regional difference in employment effect of trade in service. The result indicates that the export of trade in service has a positive function in promoting the employment, while the import has a negative curb on employment. But the promotion effect of export is greater than the substitution effect of import. In contrast with the Middle China and West China, East China has the biggest promotion effect of service export and substitution effect of service import on employment. Economic growth plays a key role in promoting the employment with different regional influences. The promotion effect of West China is the biggest. The wage and the proportion of employment in the state-owned enterprises have negative impact on employment. This paper puts forward the policies to get the balancing employment.