松花江流域上游径流变化及其影响研究

Distributed hydrological simulation and runoff variation analysis for the upper basin of Songhua River

本文以松花江流域上游地区为研究区域,建立了松花江流域上游地区的分布式水文模型GBHM(Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model)。利用扶余、五道沟、德惠站1981-1990年的实测月径流资料进行了模型的率定及验证。应用模型模拟了1981-2000年的径流过程,并采用分别固定土地利用条件和气象条件的方法,计算分析了土地利用和气象条件的变化对径流变化的贡献。结果表明,1991-2000年均降水及径流量均比1981-1990年减小,且气象条件的贡献率大于土地利用的贡献率,是径流量减少的主要控制因素。

This paper develops a distributed hydrological model, namely geomorphology based hydrological model （GBHM）, for the upper basin of the Songhua River to simulate the runoff variations. This model was calibrated and validated by using the observed monthly runoff at the gauge stations of Fuyu, Wudaogou and Dehui during 1981 -1990, and its prediction runs were used for the runoff of 1991 -2000. And the runoff model was combined with a ＂fixing-changing＂ method to analyze the relative contributions of the landuse change and climate variation to runoff changes. The results show that both the average annual precipitation and runoff during 1991 -2000 were less than those during 1981 - 1990 and the contribution of climate variation is greater than that of landuse change.