FDI溢出与区域技术进步的非线性效应研究

Nonlinear Effect between FDI Spillover and Regional Technological Progress

采用考虑'坏'产出的Malmquist-Luenberger指数测算我国全要素生产率,构建面板平滑转换模型研究技术进步与外商直接投资(FDI)之间的非线性关系.研究结果表明,早期经济发展阶段,由于我国与投资国之间的技术差距过大,'FDI技术溢出效应'并未出现,此时FDI不利于技术进步.随着经济逐渐发展,FDI对技术进步的抑制作用逐渐减弱,并开始转为正的促进作用,而当经济发展到门槛值时,促进作用逐渐明显,'FDI技术溢出效应'出现.此外,人力资本和金融发展程度对技术进步的影响也存在门槛效应,其中,人力资本对技术进步的影响最开始为负,然后转为正,而金融发展程度对技术进步的影响最开始为正,然后转为负.

By considering the ＂bad＂ output,we used Malmquist-Luenberger index to estimate the total factor productivity,and then studied the non-linear relationship between technological progress and FDI on the basis of the panel smooth transition model.The result has shown that there is a nonlinear relationship between technological progress and FDI at the early stages of economic development.The technology gap between our country and investing countries is too large,the so-called ＂FDI technology spillover effect＂ does not appear,and FDI is not good to technological progress.With the gradual development of the economy,the negative effect of FDI on technological progress weakens,then turns positive,and the ＂FDI technology spillover effect＂ emerges when the economy develops to the threshold value.In addition,there is a threshold effect of human capital and financial development.Human capital has a negative effect on technological progress in the early time period,and then it becomes positive with the development of the economy.Fnancial development has a positive effect on technological progress in the early time period,and then,it becomes negative with the development of the economy.