基于“粮食安全视角”的耕地面积需求分析——以陕西省为例

Analysis of Demand of Cultivated Land Area Based on “Food Security”——With Shaanxi Province as an Example

＂粮食安全＂是关系到国家发展与社会稳定的基本问题。在影响粮食安全的众多因素中,＂耕地面积＂是否重要,粮食安全是否需要既定耕地面积地保障,学术界在这些问题上一直存在较多的争议。文章利用陕西省相关社会统计数据,对陕西省＂粮食安全＂与＂耕地面积＂的关系进行了实证分析,并在此基础上预测出粮食安全的前提下一定时期陕西省所需耕地面积。研究结果表明：1990~2009年间陕西省粮食生产与耕地面积相关,但耕地面积并不是影响粮食生产的主要因素;在保持现有耕地面积相对稳定的基础上,依靠科技进步,提高粮食单产,是该省未来增强粮食生产能力的主要方向;按照以往技术进步比率计算,在保证粮食安全的前提下,2020、2030年陕西省保障粮食安全所需的耕地面积分别约为3 379.91千公顷、3 266.38千公顷。

＂Food Security＂ is the basic issue to national development and social stability. Is ＂the cultivated land area＇important in many influence factors for food security？ Is cultivated land area established to guarantee food security？ There are some controversy about the relationship between food security and cultivated land in the academic circle. This paper carries analysis on the relationship by using relevant social statistical data of Shaanxi province and predicts the area of cultivated land under the prerequisite of food security in certain period for the province. The results of the study show that. grain production and cultivated land area are related, but it is not the main influence factors from 1990 to 2009; base on maintaining the existing cultivated land area, relying on scientific and technological progress, improving grain yield per unit area is the main direction for the province to increase grain production capacity in the future. In the premise of food security in 2020 and 2030, the need of cultivated land area is respectively 3. 37991 million hectares and 3. 26638 million hectares.