粘性信息、货币政策与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的数值模拟分析

Sticky Information,Monetary Policy and Economic Fluctuations: Based on DSGE Numerical Simulation Analysis

本文建立了一个具有粘性信息的DSGE模型,通过数值模拟比较存在利率平滑倾向、对通胀和产出缺口有不同敏感反应的三种不同形式(后顾性、同期和前瞻性)的泰勒(Taylor)规则下,货币政策冲击对经济波动的影响。结果表明,信息的粘性导致通胀和产出缺口对冲击的反应呈滞后的"驼峰"形状,这很好地解释了经济现实;央行平滑调整利率,以及对通胀和产出缺口的高敏感反应,都能够减少经济波动;后顾性货币政策规则更能够减少通胀的波动,而前瞻性规则和同期规则,更能够减少产出缺口的波动;后顾性规则和前瞻性规则都有内在不稳定的可能。因此央行应当结合具体政策目标做出权衡。

This paper constructs a sticky information DSGE model to compare the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic fluctuations under different types of monetary policy rule by numerical simulation. The main findings are as follows： firstly, the responses of inflation and output gap are delayed and hump-shaped as the existence of sticky information, and are better meet economic realities. Secondly, interest rate smoothing can reduce economic fluctuation and the more sensitive the nominal interest rate is to the inflation and output gap, the smaller fluctuations. Thirdly, backward rule does better in stabilizing inflation rate and forward rule does better in reducing the fluctuation of output, followed by current rule. Both backward and forward rule face the probability of instability. So it is necessary for the central bank to make trade-offs with specific policy objectives.