航运业增速放缓 黯然步入年末淡季

A slow year enters the slack season

泛太平洋集装箱运量年尾低位徘徊，明年1月始有望小幅回升。

Trans-Pacific carriers are preparing for an end-of-year letdown before demand picks up in January's mini-peak. The U.S. import trade from Asia is a microcosm of the problems carriers face on the major east-west trade lanes this year. Container volumes are slightly higher than they were in 2012, but vessel utilization factors are lower and will drop again in November. Containerized imports moving through West Coast ports are up 2 to 3 percent this year, but according to an analysis by the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, vessel utilization during the first two weeks of September was in the 91 to 93 percent range, down from 97 to 98 percent during the same weeks last year. 'It's due more to the capacity side than the volume side,' TSA Executive Director Brian Conrad said. The TSA is a discussion group of 15 carriers in the trade from Asia to the U.S. Carriers are unlikely to attempt to raise their rates for the remaining two or three months of 2013 because the trans-Pacific and AsiaEurope trades will be in a slack period. A bump in rates could occur in January because of the pre-Chinese New Year rush, but rates will decline in the winter before beginning to rise again in the spring. The container trades also are affected by local economic conditions. Europe's lengthy recession kept trade volumes flat to negative for most of 2013, and freight rates were under pressure for much of the year. If the U.S. economy can register sustained growth of at least 3 percent for two to three quarters, economists expect a significant capacity crunch in trucking, which has not increased its capacity the way ocean carriers have. Ocean carriers won't be so lucky. Even if economic growth in the U.S. and Europe is stronger than expected next year, there is so much capacity overhang in the global shipping industry that vessel utilization rates are expected to be below what is necessary to give carriers greater pricing power in the east-west trade lanes.