东南亚散运需求将激增

Southeast Asia demand boom for bulk shipping

未来20年，东南亚地区对化石燃料的需求将呈现巨大的增长曲线，该地区的煤炭进口量将增加3倍。

The International Energy Agency is predicting a massive growth curve for fossil-fuel demand in the region with coal imports tripling over the next 20 years and a similar outlook for oil. The tanker and dry bulk sectors look set to be key beneficiaries of a huge predicted increase in crude and coal imports into Southeast Asia over the next 20 years. Countries in the region will be increasingly forced to turn to fossil-fuel imports as domestic demand outpaces local production. A new report by the International Energy Agency(IEA) forecasts that the region's energy demand is expected to increase by over 80% by 2035, a rise equivalent to the current demand in Japan. The analysis covers the 10 member countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Oil imports are forecast to rise from the current 1.9 million barrels per day(bpd) to over five million bpd by 2035, making the region the world's fourth-largest importer after China, India and the European Union(EU). Combined annual spending on oil imports by ASEAN nations is projected to rise to $240bn in 2035, equivalent to nearly 4% of the region's gross domestic product(GDP), the IEA says. The IEA says the outlook for gas production is brighter than that for oil, owing to a richer resource base and growing demand in the Asia-Pacific market. Gas production in Southeast Asia is forecast to rise by almost 30% to 260 billion cubic metres between 2011 and 2035, with Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar the main contributors. Improving the performance of these plants, the IEA says, would cut projected energy demand by almost 15% by 2035, an amount that exceeds Thailand's current energy demand. Net oil imports would fall by around 700,000 bpd, comparable with Malaysia's current production.