省域居民消费、对外开放程度与产业结构升级——基于省际面板数据的空间计量分析

Provincial Household Consumption, Opening Degree and Industrial Structure Upgrading: A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

运用空间计量方法对1991～2010年的省域面板数据研究后发现。具有显著地区异质性与时点易变性的我国居民消费在总体上对第二产业有显著的正向影响．而在第三产业中的作用力度及其显著性均小得多。进一步的研究显示，居民消费对产业结构升级的作用机制随着经济发展水平的提高而呈现出从第二产业逐渐作用到第三产业的“高级化”变动态势．由此促使产业结构升级。对外开放程度的提高在总体上能对我国各地区间产业结构升级起到积极作用。本文的发现对理解消费、对外开放与产业结构升级闭的关系以及制定产业结构升级政策都有重要启示。

By using spatial econometric methods to analyze the panel data through 1991- 2010, the paper finds that the regional difference and time variation of provincial household consumption has a significant and positive effect on secondary industry while it has a less significant and much smaller influence on tertiary industry generally. The further study indicates that household consumption not only presents an increasing tendency as crossing eastern, middle and western areas successively, but also shows an ＂advanced＂ trend that this impact is significant from secondary industry to tertiary industry gradually as the economy grows, and it is this trend that promotes industrial structure upgrading. The increase of opening degree plays an active role in regional industrial structure upgrading on the whole. These findings have a significant enlightenment on the understanding of relationships between household consumption, opening degree and industrial structure upgrading.