2005~2012年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎发病现状与趋势预测

Epidemic Status of Mumps in Huhhot from 2005 to 2012 and Trend Forecast

目的:掌握呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎发病现状,初步预测2013年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎的发病情况,为制定有效的防控措施提供数据支持。方法:采用描述流行病学方法对呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎发病情况进行分析,运用ARlMA数学模型对呼和浩特市2013年流行性腮腺炎发病数进行预测。结果:2005~2012年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎年平均发病率为18.50/10万,其中2012年发病率为40.17/10万,处于近年发病最高水平;地区分布以玉泉区和赛罕区居多,病例以学生为主,发病年龄集中在2~15岁年龄段;2013年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎预测发病数为1 608例,较2012年上升了38.93%。结论:2013年预测发病数比较高,发病形势较为严峻,建议在我市针对重点人群尽快开展流行性腮腺炎疫苗的接种工作,形成免疫屏障,保障人民群众生命健康。

Objective： To undersland the mumps eplctemlc status ano epmeuuologtt^tL ~,~tl,~ hot City, and analyze the epidemiological factors, which will provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of epidemic parotid gland in future. Methods： The incidence of mumps were used to analyze by de- scriptive epidemiological methods in Hohhot City, the incidence of mumps numbers 2013 were predicted by the AR1MA mathematical model. Results：The average incidence rate was ] 8.50/100 000 from 2005 to 2012 in Ho- hhot City, and 40.17/100 000 in 2012; cases distribution was mostly in Saihan and Yuquan district, were mainly students, age mainly in 2--15 years of age; the number of mumps was 1 608 by predict in 9,013 years of Hohhot City, which increased by 38.93 % compared with the same period last year. Conclusion：The incidence rate from data base and prediction in 2013 was high, the situation is more severe, suggestion was offerd about preventive vaccination in focus groups as soon as possible to form immune barrier and protect people＇s lives and health.