气象因素对三江平原大豆菌核病的影响及预测模型的创建

Effects of Meteorological Factors on Soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in Sanjiang Plain and Related Prediction Model Establishment

为了准确及时地预测大豆菌核病的发生发展，于2004～2012年在三江平原定点、定期调查大豆田大豆菌核病的发生情况，并采用逐步回归分析和通径分析研究了大豆开花期6个气象因子及田间子囊盘个数与大豆菌核病发病率的关系，同时还建立了大豆菌核病的逐步回归预测模型。结果表明：大豆开花期间7月降雨量、7月平均气温以及7月田间子囊盘个数3个因子对大豆菌核病的发病率影响最为关键，预测模型可以提前20d左右对大豆菌核病的发生进行中期预测，2012年预测发病率与实际发病率基本相符。

In order to predict the development of soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum accurately and timely, the occun-ence of sclerotia at fixed point in Sanjiang Plain from 2004 to 2012 was surveyed ,and the relations between the incidence of sclerotia stem rot and 6 meteorological factors at soybean flowering as well as the apotheeium number was studied by stepwise regression and path analysis. And the stepwise regression prediction model of soybean sclerotia stem rot was established. Results showed the precipitation, average temperature and apothecium number in July bad vital impact on the incidence of soybean sclerotia. The prediction model could forecast the occurrence of sclerotia for about 20 days in advance, and the forecasting incidence was basically consistent with the actual results in 2012.