中国出口贸易关系的生存分析:1995-2010

Survival Analysis of China's Export Relationship During 1995-2010

本文采用非参数K-M方法分析1995-2010年中国出口数据发现,中国出口贸易关系生存时间较短,持续期中位数只有2年,存在"门槛效应",贸易关系在建立初期的生存率比较低,4年以后失败的概率大幅降低。基于Cox PH模型的进一步分析发现:经济规模、地理距离等传统引力变量以及首次出口额、竞争力、多元化等产品特征变量对中国出口贸易关系生存影响较大;此外,人民币汇率也是影响出口贸易关系生存的重要变量。这些结论为当前制定稳定出口增长政策提供了一些重要的经验支持。

After analyzing China＇s 1995-2010 export data using non-parameter Kaplan-Meier method, this paper discovers that the survival duration of China＇s export relationships is relatively short with a median of only two years, and there is also a threshold effect for this duration. The newly established trade relationships have a relatively low survival rate, but four years after the foundation the failure rate declines significantly. Furthermore, using Cox Proportional Hazard model, this empirical research shows that the traditional gravitation factors such as economic scale and geographic distance have a strong impact on the survival duration, and so do the product characteristics including initial export volume, product competitiveness, and product diversity. Moreover, RMB exchange rate is one of the key influential factors. These findings can provide some credible empirical reference for China to formulate export stabilization policies.