基于演进视角的中国属权贸易利益统计研究

China's Ownership-based Trade Interests: A Statistical Study with Evolutional Approach

本文在梳理传统贸易利益①测算指标的基础上,引入全球生产网络背景下贸易附加值的测算方法,着重构建了属权贸易利益测算的一般模型、股份制企业制度约束下贸易利益测算模型以及针对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)统计特点的贸易利益测算模型。分析发现:贸易差额适用于衡量一般贸易方式下的贸易利益,贸易条件可以反映一国出口商品的交换能力,两者结合有助于全面理解传统分工下的贸易利益;贸易附加值指标适用于解释生产要素全球流动、加工贸易迅速发展背景下一国出口贸易利益;属权原则将一国外商直接投资(FDI)和OFDI对贸易的影响纳入研究,有助于从国家利益这个角度准确衡量一国贸易规模和贸易利益。本文依据1998-2011年的数据测算发现:属权原则统计下中国的对外贸易进、出口规模大幅增加,而贸易利益额度缩小,且差额都呈扩大趋势。

With a critical overview of the traditional measure indicators of trade interests, this paper introduces the method for calculating value added in trade in the context of global production networks, concentrates on establishing a general model for calculating ownership-based trade interests, and tests this model with data from China especially OFDI data. The results show that： （1） trade balance is applicable for measuring trade interests under general trade modes, terms of trade can reflect the exchange capabilities of a country＇s export commodities, and a combination of both can contribute to a more comprehensive un- derstanding of trade interests in the traditional labor division framework; （2） indi- cators of added value in trade are suitable for explaining trade interests in the context of globally flowing production elements and the rapid development of processing trade; （3） the ownership-based measurement principle includes a country＇s FDI and OFDI in the calculation and is effective to accurately reflect the scale and interests of trade from a national perspective. Using data dated between 1998 and 2011, this paper finds that in ownership-based calculation principle, China has witnessed a substantial increase in its foreign trade both in terms of import and export, but trade interests have been increasingly shrinking.