贸易开放水平、区位差异与中国经济增长——基于1994-2011年中国省级数据的实证考察

Trade Openness Level, Location Difference and China's Economic Growth: With Empirical Evidences from China's Provincial Panel Data through 1994-2011

本文采用中国1994-2011年的省级面板数据,验证贸易开放水平与经济增长是否存在非线性关系,并进一步从区位差异视角考察贸易开放水平对经济增长的内在作用机制。研究发现:贸易开放水平与经济增长的非线性关系基本成立;贸易政策调整对于缩小贸易开放水平的区位差异并推动经济增长具有明显的促进作用;中国总体贸易开放水平不足,但东部和沿海地区却可能过高;直辖市和三大经济带总体贸易开放水平的提高可促进经济增长;中国整体及东部、中部和西部地区的出口贸易开放水平不足,而沿海地区、直辖市和三大经济带则可能过高;整体进口贸易开放水平不足,可进一步提升其对经济增长的促进作用;相对于出口,进口贸易开放水平上升对经济增长的推动作用更大。

China＇s provincial panel data through 1994-2001 is employed to test the nonlinear relationships between the level of trade openness and economic growth, and a further investigation is made to examine the potential influence mechanism of trade openness on economic growth. The results verify the nonlinear relationships between the level of trade openness and economic growth. The adjustment of trade policies narrows the gap of trade openness levels caused by location differences, and is positive on promoting economic growth. The overall trade openness in China is insufficient, while against this general scenario the openness level in the eastern and coastal areas of China may turn out to be over-high. The improvement in general trade openness in direct Municipalities and three major economic zones can positive influence economic growth. The overall export openness of China and of its eastern, central and western areas is insufficient, but the openness indicator in coastal areas, direct Municipalities and three major economic zones may prove to be over-high. The overall import openness level in China is low, so by improving this level a positive impact can be brought to boost economic growth. Compared with a rise in export openness level, a rise in import openness level can bring a greater positive impact on economic growth.