汇率的不完全价格传递及政策协调

Incomplete Price Transmission and Policy Coordination of Exchange Rates

在传统的汇率与商品价格关系理论中,一国汇率的变动对以外币表示的出口商品价格的传递是完全的;而在现实中,汇率的变动对以外币表示的出口商品价格的传递则常常是不完全的。汇率的不完全价格传递的存在减弱了汇率上升对本国贸易顺差的影响,增大了对本国外向产出与就业的冲击,暴露了单一汇率政策的局限性和负面性。文章从理论的角度探讨汇率对商品价格不完全让渡的内在机理及其效应机制,探讨汇率与进出口价格的不完全传递关系、汇率的不完全价格传递对出口规模的影响、汇率的不完全价格传递的因素、汇率不完全转移导致的汇率政策的局限性以及在新时期为促进我国外向型实体经济产出与就业稳定与适度增长,汇率政策与其他经济政策的协调与搭配。

According to traditional theories describing the relationship between exchange rates and commodity prices, the transmission of one country＇s exchange rates change to export prices is complete; in reality, however, this transmission is often incomplete, weakening the effect of exchange rates on trade surplus and aggravating its shock on foreign output and employment. This phenomenon exposes the limitations of a single exchange rate policy. From a theoretical perspective, this paper discusses this incomplete transmission mechanism between exchange rates and commodity prices, explores this incomplete transitive relationship and its effect on export scale, investigate into the determinants of this incomplete transmission, and analyzes the limitations of exchange rate policies against this scenario. This paper also discusses the necessity to coordinate exchange rate policies with other forms of economic policies in order to promote employment stability and growth of China＇s export-oriented economy.