山东省火灾起数季节波动性研究

Seasonal Fluctuation Analysis of Fires in Shandong Province

对山东省火灾起数的季节波动性开展了研究,主要分析月份平均火灾起数的季节波动性、火灾原因与季节波动性的关系和去除季节波动性后的火灾起数时间序列。结果表明,山东省月平均火灾起数,2月份最高,8月份最低,与气温存在明显的负相关。除"玩火"、"自燃"、"静电"与"雷击"4种火灾原因外,其他火灾原因引起的火灾起数都具有季节性趋势。除"玩火"外,其他火灾原因在不同月份或季节上的分布是相似的。根据去除季节性因素后的火灾起数时间序列曲线,发现开展消防安全专项治理活动可引起火灾起数下降。

This paper carries out a research about the seasonal fluctuations of the number of fires of Shandong province. It mainly analyzes the seasonal fluctuations of average number of monthly fires, the relationship between fire causes and seasonal fluctuations and the time - series of number of fires without seasonal fluctuations. The average number of monthly fires has an obvious negative correlation with the temperature of Shandong while the peak value appears in February and the valley value in August. In addition to these four kinds of fire causes including improper uses of fire, spontaneous combustion, static electricity and lightning, there is a seasonal trend of the number of fires caused by other fire causes. Apart from improper uses of fire, the distribution of other kinds of fire causes in different months and seasons is similar. According to the curve of number of fires and time series without seasonal factors, the fire safety inspection work carried by the fire department may result in the reduction of the number of fires.