基于等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型的城市大气环境质量预测研究

Atmospheric Environmental Quality Prediction with Dimension Gray Recurrence Dynamic GM(1,1)Model

根据乌鲁木齐市2005～2011年大气环境中3种污染物(SO2、NO2、PM10)的监测值,对乌鲁木齐市大气环境质量现状进行分析评价.采用等维灰数递补动态的方法,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对乌鲁木齐市2012～2015年SO2、NO2和PM10的浓度变化进行中短期预测分析.结果表明:近年来乌鲁木齐市主要大气污染物依然是SO2和PM10,呈现典型的煤烟型污染特征;空气综合污染指数整体呈下降趋势,空气污染程度呈逐年减轻趋势,空气质量逐步得到改善.预测结果显示,2012～2015年乌鲁木齐市大气污染物SO2和PM10浓度呈下降趋势,NO2浓度呈缓慢上升趋势.

The atmospheric environmental quality of Urumqi was analyzed and evaluated from 2005 to 2011 with atmospheric environment pollutants（SO2, NO2, PM10） monitoring values. By using the same dimension gray recurrence dynamic method,GM （1,1） prediction model was established, with which the change trends of SOz ,NO2 and PM10 concentration in the short-term from 2012 to 2015 were forecasted. The results showed that： In recent years, the major atmospheric pollutants in Urumqi are still SO2 and PM0, so it is showing a typical coal-burning pollution characteristics. The overall air pollution index show downward trend year by year, and the degree of air pollution is lower and lower, so air quality will gradually improve. The predicted results showed that atmospheric pollutants SO2 and PMa0 concentration will decrease,while NO2 concentrations will show a slow upward trend in Urumqi from 2012 to 2015.