中国政府消费与居民消费关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Government Consumption and Household Consumption

政府消费对居民消费存在着挤出效应、挤入效应。本文在典型的新古典经济学的分析框架下,引入凯恩斯主义中的当期绝对可支配收入研究政府消费与居民消费的关系,发现中国居民消费率与政府消费率、可支配收入占比之间存在阶段性的协整关系,政府消费对居民消费存在加强的挤出效应;政府消费与居民消费共生,互为Granger因果;政府消费对居民消费的动态效应开始为挤入,后为更强挤出。如果在新经济增长阶段中国政府消费职能从推动经济建设向提供公共产品过渡,中国政府消费对居民消费的作用也将从挤出变为挤入。

There are two kinds of effects of government consumption on household consumption： crowding - in effect and crowding - out effect. In the framework of the new classical economics of current income, the paper carries out an analysis of the relationship between government consumption and household consumption by introducing Keynes doctrine of absolute disposable income. The results show the cointegration relationship exists between household consumption rate and govern- ment consumption rate, disposable income, and government consumption has strengthening crowding - out effect on resi- dents consumption; government consumption is symbiotic with household consumption, and they exist mutually causal Granger relationship; dynamic effects of government consumption on household consumption are different： from crowding - in in the initial stage to more crowding - out. If in the new economic growth period, government consumption function will shift from constructing economy to providing more public products, then the effects of Chinese government consumption on household consumption will also shift from crowding- out to crowding -in.