基于Cox生存模型的上市公司财务困境预测研究

Research on Listed Companies Financial Crisis Prediction based on Cox Survival Model

本文采取Cox生存模型进行财务困境预测,选取我国制造业40家ST上市公司和260家非ST上市公司进行实证研究,在训练好的模型基础上进行预测,得出企业出现财务困境的影响因素和程度,并选取10家上市公司进行危机时点预测,实证结论与实际情况相符。Cox模型对上市公司具有危机预警的应用指导意义。

This paper takes the Cox survival model for financial crisis prediction, 40 ST listed companies and 260 non ST listed companies of the manufacturing industry of our country are selected to conduct the empirical research. Based on the trained model, we forecast and obtain the factors that influence enterprise financial crisis and degree of it. Moreover, we select 10 listed companies to make crisis point forecast, the empirical conclusion is consistent with the actual situa- tion. In conclusion, the Cox model has great applied guiding significance to crisis early warning of the listed companies.