“煤电运”物流系统风险模型及实证研究

Empirical Study on Risk Model of Coal-Electricity-Transportation Logistics System

中国"煤-电-运"的物流系统(CET)内部关系密切,受各种风险因素的影响而协调运作基础脆弱。CET系统具有明显的内部闭环结构,基于这种闭环性结构构建CET系统的基本模型和物流风险模型,利用不可操作性风险模型的投人产出方法对CET系统的风险传递关系做宏观实证分析。结果表明,风险传递矩阵最大正特征值呈现递增趋势,并且增速在逐渐加快,这表明电力系统、煤炭系统、铁路运输系统之间风险传递强度明显加强。CET系统风险的结构、状态、演化趋势都要求在风险管理体系上需要顶层设计。

In this paper, we established the basic model and logistics risk model of the coal-electricity-transportation system on the basis of the closed-loop structure of the system, and used the input-output method in the inoperable risk model to have a macroscopic empirical analysis of the risk transmission of the system. We found that the maximal positive eigenvalue of the risk transmission matrix was incremental and acceleratingly so, indicating that the risk transmission among the electricity system, coal system and railway system was significantly intensified.