甘肃省城镇化与工业化耦合发展研究

Research on the Coupling Development of the Urbanization and Industrialization in Gansu Province

基于城镇化与工业化的耦合协调互动特征构建了耦合协调理论模型,对2000-2010年甘肃城镇化与工业化的耦合度和协调度进行了测度和互动分析,并对"十二五"期间甘肃城镇化与工业化的耦合协调度进行了灰色预测。结果显示:从耦合度的时序来看,2001年以来甘肃城镇化与工业化系统一直处于拮抗阶段;从耦合协调程度的时序来看,甘肃城镇化与工业化系统的耦合协调程度从低度协调发展到高度协调;利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测显示,在"十二五"期间,甘肃城镇化与工业化偶和协调度达到0.8以上,二者达到极度协调。说明甘肃城镇化与工业化逐渐达到一个良性均衡发展的态势。

The coupling coordination theory model is established on the basis of the coupling interactive characteristic of the urbanization and industrialization to measure and interactively analyze the coupling de- gree and the coordination degree of the urbanization and industrialization in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2010,and the grey prediction is made on the coupling degree of the urbanization and industrialization in Gansu Province during the period of the Twelfth Five-year Plan. The result indicates that the system of the urbanization and industrialization in Gansu Province has been in antagonistic stage since 2001 from the as- pect of the time sequence of the coupling degree, and from the viewpoint of time sequence of the coupling coordination degree, the coupling coordination degree of the urbanization and industrialization in Gansu Province has developed from the lower coordination to the higher one, then the grey model GM（1.1） pre- dicts that the coupling degree of the urbanization and industrialization in Gansu Province will reach above 0. 8 during the period of the Twelfth Five-year Plan, which is utmost coordination. It shows that the urban- ization and industrialization in Gansu Province is gradually to the benign and balanced development.