发达国家量化宽松货币政策对中国国际收支影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy in Developed Countries on International Payment in China

发达国家量化宽松货币政策从实施到最后终结都经历了一个较长的过程,从目前来看,退出前景还不明朗。量化宽松货币政策主要通过贸易渠道和金融渠道对经济运行产生影响。通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR),实证分析表明:欧美日量化宽松带来的货币供应量增加,短期内会对我国对其跨境收支和进出口产生正向冲击,且对跨境收支变化的解释能力较强;人民币实际有效汇率的变动会对我国对美日欧的进出口产生负向冲击,对我国对美日欧的跨境收入产生短期的正向冲击,对支出产生负向冲击。对此应进一步加快国内金融体制改革、转变对外贸易发展方式及完善人民币汇率形成机制等。

It took a long time for the developed countries starting from the implementation of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy to its final ending. Currently, the prospect of quitting is still ambiguous. Quantitative Easing Mone- tary Policy exerts an influence on economic operation mainly through trade and financial channel. According to em- pirical analysis based on VAR, the increase of monetary supply amount brought about by daily quantitative easing in European countries will have a positive influence on international payment, import and export in China. Besides, it has stronger explanation ability for international payment change. The variation of real effective exchange rate will have a negative influence on import and export towards America, Japan and European countries and a short-term pos- itive influence on international payment. Therefore, domestic financial system reform should be quickened, develop- ment mode of external trade should be transformed and RMB exchange rate formation mechanism should be perfec- ted.