国际货币体系失衡下的中国外汇储备:影响因素与适度水平

The Influence and Measure of the Moderate Scale of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves-on the Imbalance of the International Monetary System

在现行的国际货币体系之下,发达国家可以采取仅以满足本国经济需求为目的的货币政策,造成大量资本流入新兴市场。实证研究表明,在中国外汇储备增加的过程中,国际货币体系的失衡因素起了一定影响。在此基础上,利用修正的阿格沃尔模型对外汇储备适度规模进行了测算,结果显示,中国外汇储备增长呈现分阶段变化趋势。

Under the current international monetary system, monetary policy of developed countries only meets their own economic needs which results in a large number of capital inflowing into emerging market. Empirical stud- ies show that there exits a certain relationship between the imbalance of the international monetary system and the scale of China＇ s foreign exchange reserves. On this basis, this paper estimates China＇ s moderate scale of foreign ex- change reserves using amended Agarwal model. The conclusion is that the growth of China＇ s foreign exchange re- serves has different trend in different periods.