山东省旅游业影响因子及规模预测分析——基于灰色系统理论

An Analysis of the Main Influential Factors of Shandong Domestic Tourism and the Market Scale Forecast Based on Grey System Theory

根据2001-2011年山东省旅游业数据,运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度分析法,以灰色关联度为度量指标,对影响山东省旅游业的相关因子进行定量测算,可知影响山东省旅游人数的三大因素是国内生产总值、人均GDP和职工年平均工资;影响山东省旅游收入三大因素是国内生产总值、人均GDP和社会消费品零售总额。从实证的角度揭示了山东省旅游业发展与各影响因素之间的关联程度及其变化规律。建立山东省旅游接待人数和旅游收入的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,为制定旅游业发展规划和调整旅游产业结构方面提供决策依据。

Based on gray relational analysis method of gray system theory and taking the gray relational grade as a measurement indicator, this paper analyzes the relevant factors that affect Shandong domestic tourism industry ac- cording to Shandong domestic tourism data from 2001 to 2011. The three primary influencing factors of Shandong do- mestic arrivals are GDP, PGDP and annual average wages of staff and workers, and the three primary influencing fac- tors of Shandong domestic income are GDP, PGDP and total retail sales of social consumer goods. From an empirical perspective, it reveals the relational degree between domestic tourism industry and each influencing factors, including its changing rule. By constructing GM（ 1,1 ） forecasting model, it has a short period prediction of Shandong domestic tourist arrivals and domestic tourism income. Thereby it provides a scientific decision-making basis for government to draw up development planning and adjust the industrial structure of domestic tourism industry.