基于α—水平截集的模糊TOPSIS方法在公共危机管理能力评价中的应用研究

Application of Fuzzy TOPSIS Based on alpha Level Sets in Evaluating Public Crisis Management Capability

科学、客观地评价公共危机管理能力,对于完善危机管理系统有着重要的意义。本文从危机前预警能力,危机中处理能力和危机后恢复能力三个维度构建了公共危机管理能力评价指标体系。考虑到人们对复杂事物判断的模糊性,采用三角模糊数将专家给出的定性评价结果量化,结合α-水平截集和TOPSIS建立了公共危机管理能力综合评价模型,并通过求解非线性规划问题得出危机管理能力的模糊相对贴近度,进而去模糊化得出评价结果。最后用该模型对公共危机管理能力进行实证分析,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。

Scientific and objective evaluation of public crisis management is of vital importance to the improvement of crisis management system. A three-perspective evaluation system of crisis management capability is proposed in this paper, which includes the forecast capability before crisis, emergency response capability during crisis, and recovery capability after crisis. Considering the ambiguity of people＇ s judgment about complex things , the triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantize experts＇ qualitative evaluation results. A fuzzy TOPSIS evaluation model based on alpha level sets and a nonlinear programming（NLP） solution procedure to acquire the fuzzy relative closeness of each alternative are put forward to get the objective evaluation result without fuzziness. A ease study is carried out to testify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.