1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal changes of agrometrorological disasters for wheat production across China since 1990

利用1991-2009年中国农业气象站点记录的灾害及物候资料,首先对小麦各类气象灾害发生的频次及所在生长发育期进行了时空特征分析;然后通过对比较暖10年(2000-2009)与其前10(1990-1999)年两个时期的灾害时空变化特点,探讨气候变化对灾害发生的影响。结果表明:干旱是小麦发生频率最高的灾害类型,其发生频率高达79.21%,冰雹、干热风、大风、连阴雨等灾害类型也在小麦生产过程中有较多发生。气候变化背景下,小麦典型气象灾害发生频次有所增加,并且主要发生在生殖生长期。空间上,灾害类型增加较为明显的有:山东半岛的干热风、西北地区东部的干旱、暴雨及冰雹。分析表明:不同灾害种类的发生及变化的空间分布与中国气候变化特征有很强的关系。

Agro-meteorological disasters （AMDs） are increasingly of concerns due to their critical stresses on crop production. In this study, firstly the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major AMDs on wheat production were investigated using the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations of China from 1990 to 2009. Then the impacts of climate change on AMDs were investigated by comparing the spatiotemporal pattern of AMDs in the warmer decade （2000-2009） with that in the other decade （1991-2000）. We found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, accounting for 79% of total disasters. The frequency of wheat disasters increased significantly in the warmer decade. The major disasters occurred more frequently during reproductive growth period than during vegetative growth period. The spatial changes in the frequency of main disasters were region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas in the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. These changes in AMDs during the last two decades were closely related to changes in climate extremes. Effective adaptation options should be developed timely to reduce crop loss based on the new characteristic of AMDs under global warming.