应用A^2DS^2评分预测老年人群卒中后肺炎发生的危险因素

Application of A^2DS^2 score for predicting post-stroke pneumonia in elderly patients

目的探讨老年人群卒中后肺炎发生的危险因素,并应用A2DS2评分预测老年人群卒中后肺炎的发生。方法采用回顾性调查方法,对2007年1月~2012年12月在我院神经内科住院时间超过24 h的60岁以上老年男性卒中患者肺炎进行临床资料采集分析。并应用工作特征曲线(ROC)曲线分析方法评价A2DS2评分预测老年卒中后肺炎发生的风险,应用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验该评分的校准度。结果共纳入131例老年男性卒中病例,卒中后肺炎发生率为29.01%。卒中所致神经功能障碍为中(P=0.0081,OR:5.6089;95%CI:1.5663-20.0854)、重度(P=0.0048,OR:44.4827;95%CI:3.1847-621.3126)、吞咽困难(P=0.0005,OR:7.5265;95%CI:2.4282-23.3292)、房颤(P=0.0226,OR:4.1778;95%CI:1.2221-14.2825)均为卒中后肺炎的独立危险因素。A2DS2评分小于3分者卒中后肺炎发生率仅为2.2%,而8分以上者发生率则升至75%。ROC曲线分析表明,老年人群卒中后肺炎A2DS2评分的C值为0.86(95%CI 0.784-0.911)。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验提示该评分对预测老年人群卒中后肺炎发生校准度较好(7.083,P=0.528)。结论早期识别卒中后肺炎的危险因素,应用A2DS2评分有效预测卒中病人发生肺炎的风险,对于防治卒中后肺炎有重要意义。

Objective To investigate the risk factors for post-stroke pneumonia and assess the value of A2DS2 score in predicting post-stroke pneumonia in elderly stroke patients. Methods The clinical data were retrospectively collected from elderly stroke patients from Januar, 2007 to December, 2012. A2DS2 score was then assigned using the clinical information from the medical record. The ability of the score to discriminate between patients with post-stroke pneumonia and those without was quantified using ROC analysis. The calibration of the score was analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results A total of 131 elderly male stroke patients were enrolled in this study, among Whom the incidence of post-stroke pneumonia was 29.01%. The independent risk factors for post-stroke pneumonia identified included moderate （P=0.0081, OR： 5.6089; 95% CI： 1.5663-20.0854） and severe （P=0.0048, OR： 44.4827; 95%CI： 3.1847-621.3126） neurological impairment, dysphagia （P=0.0005, OR： 7.5265; 95%CI： 2.4282-23.3292）, and atrial fibrillation （P=0.0226, OR： 4.1778; 95%CI： 1.2221-14.2825）. The incidence of post-stroke pneumonia ranged from 2.2% in patients with a A2DS2 score less than 3 to 75% in those with a score higher than 8. The C-statistic of A2DS2 score for predicting post-stroke pneumonia was 0.86 （95%CI： 0.784-0.911） by the ROC analysis. The A2DS2 score was well calibrated to predict post-stroke pneumonia in elderly patients by Hosmer-Lemeshow test （7.083, P=0.528）. Conclusion The A2DS2 score can be useful for predicting post-stroke pneumonia and for routine monitoring of high-risk elderly stroke patients in the clinical setting.