天然气中长期需求预测技术现状及发展趋势

Current Situation and Development Trend of Medium and Long-Term Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Technique

天然气中长期需求预测是通过对特定国家或地区天然气消费量历史数据的分析,掌握市场发展规律,分析影响因素,并结合相关资料,采取适合的数学方法和预测技术测算未来天然气需求量的过程。根据是否仅考虑预测对象的自身变化规律,中长期需求预测技术可分为基于时间序列的预测技术和基于相关关系的预测技术两大类。介绍了各种预测技术的原理和特点,阐述了其在国内外天然气中长期需求预测领域的应用现状、存在问题和改进措施,并展望了天然气中长期需求预测技术的发展趋势,主要体现在组合预测、智能优化算法的参数识别、自适应与自学习策略等方面。

According to the analysis of the history data of natural gas consumption in a cetain country or region,the market development law,and influencing factors, combining with related data,the medium and long-term natural gas demand was forecasted by means of the appropriate mathematical methods and forecasting techniques. Based on whether to considering their change law of forecasting objects, forecasting techniques could be divided into forecasting technique based on time series and forecasting technique based on correlations. The principles and features of various forecasting techniques,applications of forecasting techniques to the medium and long-term natural gas demand at home and abroad,existing problems,and improvement measures were described in detail. The development trend of the medium and long-term natural gas demand forecasting techniques would be mainly embodied in the combination forecasting,parameter identification of intelligent optimization algorithms,and self-adaptation and self-learning strategy.