旱情预警几个主要技术问题的探讨

Discussion on Several major technical problems of drought early warning

旱灾是我国主要的自然灾害之一。近年来,我国干旱灾害发生频繁,对经济社会造成的影响不断加剧。加强旱情监测,提高旱情综合评判能力,探索旱情预警方法等,显得十分必要和紧迫。目前,我国旱情监测工作相对薄弱,旱情预测预报起步较晚,旱情预警尚处于研究和探索阶段。本文结合吉林省旱情预警模型研究的有关成果,探讨预警指标、预测模型、预警综合指数等主要技术问题的创建思路,为旱情预警系统研究提供借鉴和参考作用。

Abstract：Drought is one of China＇s major natfiral disasters.In recent years,the impact of frequent occurrence of drought on economic sociality is growing.it is very necessary and urgent to strengthen drought monitoring,droughtcomprehensive evaluation to improve theoability to explore the drought early warning methods.At pre- sent, China＇s drought monitoring work is relatively weak, and the drought forecasting is a late start, the drought warning is still in theresearch and exploration phase.Iia this paper,combined with Jilin relevant outcomes of drought early warning model,explores early warning indicators,forecasting models,early warning Composite Index and other major technicalproblems to create idea for drought early warning system,it provides reference to the role of research.