基于叠加的马尔科夫链的永吉县降水量分析

Assessment of the precipitation of Yongji County based on the superimposed Markov chain method

利用永吉县1957-2011年降水资料,采用线性回归法及叠加的马尔科夫链方法对永吉县的降水量进行分析,结果表明,永吉县降水量在54年中20世纪70-80年代为下降趋势,之后呈先上升后下降的趋势。以叠加的马尔科夫链可以很好的模拟永吉县降水量,但在大旱大涝年份误差较大,在计算中应综合降水序列整体进行计算以消除误差。

Based on the precipitation data from 1957 to 2011 ,the linear regression method and superimposed Markov chain method are used to analysis the precipitation of Yongji county.The results show that the amount of precipitation reduces from the 1970s to the 1980s,then it presented the trend that earlier increase and later decrease.There is a good simulate between the calculated precipitation and the observed value using the su- perimposed Markov chain method.But there is a large error in drought and flood years.In order to decrease the error,the whole precipitation series should be used in the calculation.