中国相对价格变化的通货膨胀效应——基于面板阈值模型的实证分析被引量：1

The Analysis of Inflation's Threshold Effects on RPV in China——An Empirical Study based on Panel Threshold Model

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摘要 [摘要]文章以通货膨胀率为阈值变量构建了中国预期通货膨胀、非预期通货膨胀与RPV关系的面板阈值模型。根据模型估计结果发现可能存在三个阈值效应，即在通货膨胀水平介于-2．4％～5．6％或高于13．5％时，中国预期通货膨胀对RPV才存在显著的正向影响；在低于-2．4％或介于5．6％～13．5oA时则存在显著的负向影响；说明中国预期通货膨胀对RPV的影响是非线性的且呈驼峰型。因此，国家相关部门应针对通货膨胀的不同区间采取非线性的政策以达到稳定物价水平的宏观经济调控目标。 This paper takes the rate of inflation as threshold variable to build the panel threshold model of rela- tionship between expected inflation, unexpected inflation and RPV. According to the estimated results,there may be three threshold effects, which means that the impact of expected inflation on RPV in China is positive signifi- cantly only when the rate of inflation is from-2.4% to 5.6% or higher than 13.5 %, else is negative significant- ly. These suggest that the relationship between inflation and RPV is nonlinear and hump type. Therefore, rele- vant national authorities should take nonlinear policy based on the different sections of inflation for reaching the Macro economic control target of stabilizing price level.

作者聂飒

机构地区云南民族大学经济学院

出处《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》 2013年第5期71-75,共5页 Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

关键词相对价格变化预期通货膨胀非预期通货膨胀面板阈值模型 ePV expected inflation unexpected inflation Panel Threshold Model

分类号 F822.5 [经济管理—财政学]

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