变压器状态评估多层次不确定模型

A Multilayer Uncertain Transformer Condition Assessment Model

综合考虑变压器状态评估中存在的模糊性和随机性等不确定性问题,建立了变压器多层次状态评估模型。首先构建了变压器状态评估的指标体系以及等级划分标准,并将状态评估分为整体、系统和子系统3个阶段;其次根据物元云模型得到定量评价指标的等级关联度,结合最优权重获得定量评价系统中各子系统的状态评价结果;最后对原始证据进行随机处理和贝叶斯近似,基于D-S证据理论对各子系统与各系统的评价结果进行融合,得到整体的状态评价结果。实例证明该方法行之有效,为电力变压器的状态评估提供了一种新的思路。

A multilayer transformer condition assessment model is built by taking both fuzziness and randomness in uncertainty into consideration. The framework of assessment is divided into three layers of subsystem assessment, system assessment and overall assessment, respectively. In the first layer o~ subsystem assessment, the relationship between quantitative index relative deterioration degrees and grades is expressed in the normal cloud model. Then the matter-element cloud model provides the association degrees between the quantitative indices and grades. By referring to the optimal weights, the condition assessment results of all subsystems in the quantitative assessment system are obtained. Finally random processing and Bayesian approximation of the original evidence is performed. The integral assessment results are obtained by merging the assessment results of the subsystems and systems based on the D-S evidence theory. The feasibility of the model proposed is verified through field test data, providing transformer condition assessment with a new line of thought.