中间品与资本品进口影响出口升级效应研究:理论假说与检验

Research on the effects of intermediate goods and capital goods imports on China's export structure upgrading ——A Theoretical Hypothesis and Test

国内外经济环境的变化使得我国出口大幅放缓,长期的低端制造业出口更加重了出口的压力,出口升级就显得迫在眉睫,本文试图从进口结构的角度分析中间品和资本品进口对我国出口升级的影响。通过建立理论模型提出有关中间品和资本品进口对我国出口升级影响的理论假说,并利用1995-2010年的进出口数据对提出的理论假说进行了实证检验,实证结果显示资本品和中间品的进口对我国出口升级有显著的正效应。

Changes in domestic and international economic environment have slowed down China＇ s exports sharply and the long - term low -end manufacturing exports have increased the export pressure, so the export upgrading becomes imminent. This pa- per attempts to analyze the intermediate goods and capital goods imports on China＇ s experts upgrading from the perspective of the structure of imports. Through the establishment of theoretical models, it also proposes a theoretical hypothesis that the intermedi- ate goods and capital goods imports have an impact on China＇ s exports, and makes an empirical test to the hypothesis proposed by use of the import and export data for 1995 -2010. The empirical results show that the imports of the capital goods and inter- mediate goods have a significant positive effect on the upgrading of China＇ s exports.