塔里木河流域水资源系统脆弱性定量评价研究

Quantitative Study of Water Resources System Vulnerability in Tarim River Basin

针对干旱区内陆河流域水循环过程的特点,结合该区水资源系统脆弱性研究现状,从水资源供需平衡角度分析了干旱区内陆河流域水资源系统脆弱性的概念与内涵,提出了相应的定量评估方法。以塔里木河盆地30个县市为例构建合适的指标体系,开展了水资源系统脆弱性的定量研究。结果显示,研究区各县域供、需水脆弱性差异较大,有90%的县域需、供水脆弱性指数比大于1,存在较为明显的供需矛盾;有80%的县域存在脆弱性问题,空间分布与实际情况比较吻合。研究表明,该方法和指标体系能很好地反映研究区水资源系统脆弱性的现状,对干旱区内陆河流域水资源管理和调控具有重要的指导意义。

Vulnerability of water resources system is essential to regional water management and economic de velopment in arid inland regions. The purpose of this study was to explain the meaning of water resources system vulnerability in arid inland regions and explore the vulnerability quantitatively. First, a concept of vulnerability is analyzed based on the current researches, expressing the characteristics of water resources system in arid inland regions. A methodology to quantify the vulnerability is presented subsequently by a multicriteria analysis approach. At last, the Tarim basin is selected as the representative area of arid inland regions based on the data available and experts＇ opinions. And the methodology is evaluated in the study area. Results show that 80% of the area is of vulnerability with high spatial variability. In addition, 90% of the area has a conflicting relation between water supply and demand. Moreover, the results are in accordance with the actuality, which indicates that the methodology presented is valuable for water resources manage ment and regulation. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the researches on water resources system adaptability coping with climate change.