大豆生产及贸易的生态经济效应评价

An Ecological And Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of China's Soybean Trade Based on Multi-Attributes Theory

全球化进程的加快促使全球农产品贸易量迅速增加,由此引起的环境及社会经济效应也逐渐成为学术界关注的焦点。本研究使用多属性效用理论,分别从生态和社会经济两个方面对我国及我国大豆进口来源国的大豆生产及贸易的效应进行了定量分析和评价。通过计算结果可以看出,巴西、美国大豆生产和贸易的生态效应和社会经济效应均较高,而阿根廷大豆生产及贸易则处于低生态效应、高社会经济效应的范围,相比较而言,我国大豆生产和贸易的生态和社会经济效应值均低于这三个大豆进口来源国。因此,从全球角度来看,我国大豆进口降低了全球大豆生产的生态环境负效应,提高了大豆出口国的社会经济效应。但是对于我国而言,要保证大豆供给的可持续性,一方面应提高国内大豆的生产效率和社会经济价值,另一方面应采取相应措施保障进口大豆来源的可持续性。

The rapidly growing volume of international trade in agricultural products has triggered recent research focusing on international agricultural trade and its related environmental and socio-economic impacts. As soybean has become the biggest import category in China, assessment of the ecological and socio-economic impacts of soybean trade can help policy-makers develop sustainable policy for exporting and importing countries. We analyzed and assessed the ecological and socio-economic impacts of China and soybean source countries such as the USA, Brazil and Argentina using the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. We found that Brazil and USA have high ecological and economic utility of soybean production, which means that both Brazil and the USA have an advantage in soybean production. Argentina has the higher socio-economic utility, but lower ecological utility. China has the lowest ecological and socio-economic utility because of the low production efficient and the high input of fertilizer. The assessment results for each indicator are in agreement with the current situation in each country. This study illustrates that the import of soybeans by China is not transferring the environment burden to other countries and is instead improving their economic development. To make China＇ s soybean supply chain more sustainable, China should increase domestic soybean production efficiency.