移动通信技术扩散的实证研究:基于中国1990-2012年的统计数据

The Empirical Research on the Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunication Services: Based on Statistical Data for the Period from 1990 to 2012 in China

移动通信技术创新与扩散对于中国电信改革和竞争性电信市场结构的形成具有重要意义。本文建立了技术扩散模型,拟合移动通信在中国的扩散过程,并通过建立移动通信扩散方程,运用省级面板数据分析移动通信技术扩散的影响因素。结果表明:东部地区的移动通信扩散速度和饱和移动通信普及率都要高于中西部地区。回归分析的结果为:固定电话普及率、现有移动电话普及率、运营商数量、电信综合价格水平、人口密度都是影响移动通信技术扩散速度的显著因素。人均GDP、城市化水平和技术创新虽然对扩散速度没有显著的影响,但是估计结果的符号和我们预期是一致的。移动电话和固定电话之间的关系,随着时间而发生改变,在前期表现为互补关系,在后期则表现为替代关系。为了促进移动通信业发展,政府应重视规制政策、产业政策以及科技政策的有机结合。

The technological innovation and diffusion is crucial to telecommunication reform and the shaping of competitive market structures. This paper builds mobile telecommunication technological diffusion model to describe the dispersion process of mobile communication in China and establishes mobile telecommunications diffusion equations to examine the factors that influence the technological diffusion of mobile communication based on provincial-level panel data. The results indicate that technological diffusion of mobile communication in eastern regions is much higher in speed and penetration rate than that in central and western regions of China. The regression results reveal that fixed telephone penetration,mobile phone penetration,the number of operators,total price of telecom,and the density of people are significant determinants of mobile diffusion. The rate of urbanization,per capital GDP and technology innovation are insignificant factors. The relationship between fixed- line telephone and mobile phone is changing over time. They are complements at the early time of diffusion,at the last time of diffusion they are substitutes. Therefore,the government should integrate regulations and policies,industrial policies and technical policies organically to foster the development of mobile telecommunication.