吉安市双季早稻气候适宜度变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Climate Suitability for Double-cropping Early Rice in Ji'an City

通过对吉安市双季早稻生长季温、光、水的需求及当地气候条件进行分析,建立双季早稻温度、降水、日照适宜度模型,根据模型分别计算1961—2010年吉安市双季早稻生长季各气候因子的适宜度。结果表明:近50年来,双季早稻温度、日照适宜度较高,降水适宜度较低;温度适宜度的年际变化表现为3个波动阶段,总体呈上升趋势;降水适宜度总体偏低与吉安市双季早稻生长季降水集中度高、强降水事件多有关;日照适宜度总体较高,但波动较大,呈下降趋势。

The evaluation model of climate suitability was established by analyzing the demands for temperature, light, and water for the growth and deve｜opmem of double-cropping early rice, and the local climate conditions as well. Climate suitability factors in growing seasons of double-cropping early rice in Ji＇an city during 1961--2010 were calculated by using the model. The results showed that the temperature and sunshine suitability for double-cropping early rice was higher than that of precipitation in the recent 50 years. Inter-annual variability of the suitability of temperature showed three fluctuation stages and the rising tendency. Low precipitation suitability was related to the high concentration precipitation and the excessive events of heavy precipitation during the growing season of double-cropping early ricc in Ji＇an city. The sunshine suitability was overall high but fluctuated severely, showing the dropping tendency.