基于Logistic回归模型的人口预测分析

Analysis and prediction of the population based on Logistic regression model

Logistic函数在人口、资源、环境和生态诸多系统的预测中是一个非常重要的模型.然而,Logistic模型中参数的确定又是一件较困难的事情.本文基于数值微分和最小二乘曲线拟合对Logistic回归模型进行参数估计,据此计算了我国1980年到2005年总人口数的误差,并预测了2015年我国的人口总数。

In the prediction of population, resource, environment and ecology, the Logistic function is a very important model but to determine the parameters of the model is very difficult. In this paper, based on the numerical differential and least squares estimation, we estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model to fit the digit. Furthermore, we calculate the error of the total population from 1980 to 2005, and predict the total population in our country in 2015.