国际性技术外溢对经济增长的传导路径

Propagation Mechanism of International R&D Spillovers on Economic Growth

通过构建开放经济系统中包含最终产品部门、资本设备部门、R&D部门以及人力资本开发部门的经济增长模型,将R&D和人力资本这2个要素内生化,推导结论揭示了国际性技术外溢通过促进技术专利产出和人力资本产出影响长期经济增长的双路径传导作用机制。在估计基于进口贸易、FDI和无形渠道从G7国家有效外溢到中国的R&D存量的基础上,结合国内R&D存量、技术专利产出、人力资本产出和教育经费等时间序列数据,运用平稳性、协整和Granger因果性等一套完整的计量检验方法,验证了理论模型所揭示的双路径传导作用机理在中国的适用性,并据此提出相应的政策建议。

We study an open economic growth model by endogenizing R~.D and human capital and with four sectors, i.e. R^D sector, human capital sector, intermediate and final good producing sectors. The competitive static analysis reveals the two-path mechanism of international R＆D spillovers on long run economic growth, i.e. through promoting the patents and human capital. The corresponding methods are then developed to estimate the foreign R＆D stocks spilled over from G7 economies to China via import, FDI and direct channels. Based on the time series data of domestic R＆D stocks, foreign R＆D stocks, patents, human capital in China, stationary test, cointegration test and Granger causality test are conducted to confirm that the two-path mechanism are applicable in China.