海外油气勘探开发工程——国家外汇储备的重点投资方向

Overseas oil &gas exploration and development projects: One of the key investment directions for national foreign currency reserves

作为世界第二大经济体,中国的油气对外依存度快速增长,2012年原油对外依存度已接近60%、天然气对外依存度已接近30%,国家油气安全形势严峻。截至2012年底,中国外汇储备余额超过3万亿美元,该类以欧美为主的庞大国债外汇储备该去往何处?针对国家外汇安全与油气安全日益突出的问题,提出了应将我国庞大的外汇储备重点用于投资海外油气上游业务的战略观点,并从市场需求、油气价格、石油战略储备、节能减排、行业整体优势、增强国力、经济效益、油气安全战略等方面论述了其必要性和可行性;对未来中国油气需求量、油气产量、进口油气量及用汇情况等进行了综合预测。结论认为:进一步做大做好海外油气勘探开发工程既可大幅度降低进口油气成本,同时还可以增加对油气资源的掌控度与话语权,降低油气资源安全战略风险,带动油气技术服务出口。

As the world＇s second-largest economy, China is becoming more and more dependent on the imports of oil and gas, which certainly makes serious the situation of national oil-gas safety. Up till the end of 2012, the reserve margin of foreign currency had been more than three trillion US dollars. Where should it be going such a huge sum of foreign currency loaned by the United States and many other European countries？ In view of this, this paper presented a view that overseas oil and gas exploration and develop- ment projects should be a solution. To support this point of view, its necessity and feasibility was fully discussed in the aspects of market demand, oil and gas price, strategic petroleum reserves, energy conservation and emission reduction, advantages in the oil and gas sector, the enhancement of overall national strength, economic benefit, oil and gas security strategies, and so on. Also, the future oil and gas production, quantity demanded, import volume as well as the budget of foreign currency were comprehensively predicted. It was concluded that the presented solution will not only significantly cut down the cost of oil and gas imports, but make China powerful with a greater control of and say in oil and gas resources, thus to mitigate the risk in oil and gas security and simultaneously bring along the export of oil and gas technical services.