武汉城市圈碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分解研究——基于2001-2009年市级面板数据的实证

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND AFFECTING FACTORS DECOMPOSITION OF CARBON EMISSION IN WUHAN URBAN CIRCLE FROM 2001 TO 2009

碳排放导致的全球气候变化已对人类社会与经济发展产生了深刻影响，构建一套适合“两型社会”的碳排放核算体系对于武汉城市圈寻求合理的碳减排途径具有重要的意义。以IPCC碳排放清单为依据，从4个一级项目27个二级项目系统地计算了武汉市城市圈2001～2009年各城市的碳排放总量和碳排放强度。并进一步运用迪氏对数指标分解模型（LogarithmicMeanDivisiaIndexMethod，LMDI）定量分解了影响武汉城市圈碳排放的影响因素。研究发现：废弃物处理是武汉城市圈碳排量最多的项目，碳排放主要集中在武汉、黄石、孝感和黄冈等市，城市圈碳排放总量、碳排放地理强度和经济强度的年均递增（减）率分别为1．86％、0．22％和6．06％。能源结构、能源效率是抑制碳排放的主要因素，经济水平是碳排放增长的主要原因，人口效应对碳排放的影响不大，其累计贡献值分别为一22879．85万t、一5173．10万t、14258．36万t和582．31万t。为降低碳排放，城市圈需在推进废弃物处理技术、新能源开发、产业升级和构建低碳补偿等方面做出改进。

Global climate change caused by carbon emissions has brought adverse impacts to the human society and economic development, which now becomes a major issue in world political, economic and scientific fields. Reducing carbon emission has become a international topic. China has set the target to reduce emission of greenhouse gases by 40%-45% in 2020 compared with 2005,which makes China face the dilemma between economic developments and carbon emission. It is urgent to establish a standard and unified carbon accounting system to evaluate carbon reduction potentials and to compare carbon emission levels among various cities.This study established a city-scale carbon accounting system based on IPCC list of carbon emission,including 4 departments and 27 kinds of mainly carbon sources.The 4 departments are energy consumption, industrial processes, land use patterns and waste. According to the IPCC list, this paper calculated the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Wuhan Urban Circle systematically during 2001--2009.The results show that during 2001 2009 the department that contributed the largest amount of carbon emission was the waste, with 84 892.76 ton of CO2 emission, followed by the energy department,with 36 325.13 ton of CO2 emission,and then followed by the industrial department,with 15 117.46 ton of CO2 emission.The smallest amount of carbon emission came from the land use department, with 1 445.14 ton of CO2 emission. What＇s more, the COz emission from industrial department grew rapidly.Cities with relatively higher carbon emission were Wuhan, Huangshi, Xiaogan, Huanggang. The annual increasing rate of the total carbon emission, geographical intensity of carbon emission, economic intensity of carbon emission were 1.86%-0.22% and -6.06% respectively. After all the factors which could affect the carbon emission were decomposed by reasonable conversion of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model, the results showed that factors of energy efficiency and energy structure could restrain carbon emission,with 228.80 million tons and 51.73 million tons respectively from the year 2002- 2009. In contrast,the economy development and labor scale increased the carbon emission,with 142.58 million tons and 58.23 million tons in total.Based on the present situation of Wuhan Urban Circle,it is necessary to give different policies regarding the regional characteristics to reduce CO2 emissions. The advices on carbon emission-reduced were put forward as following. （1） For Wuhan Urban Circle, industrial and energy structure should be improved, services and manufactures that consume lower energy should be given the priority to develop. What＇s more, advanced technologies as well as machines should be introduced into farmland to reduce its CO2 emission. （2） Technology levels should be promoted to raise the energy efficiency,clean energy should be introduced to decrease the proportion of coal.In order to reduce the COz from the waste department, various measures on the dispose of waste should be used to improve the recycling rate of waste. （3） Carbon emission trading should be highly encouraged by the government.（4） Ecological compensation system should be established to increase the farmer＇s enthusiasm of carbon emission-reduced production.