启发式认知偏向对项目管理规划的影响

Effect of Heuristic cognitive bias on Project Management Planning

启发式认知偏向在项目管理规划中对提高工作质量有积极的作用,笔者分别应用代表性偏向、可得性偏向、锚定效应理论去说明对企业发展的重要影响。在规划中,项目管理者不能忽视可能出现的回归均值作用,在实施具体激励制度前要经过一段时间的考察,避免因贸然下结论而出现"偏误";在理性分析的基础上,还需要敏锐的直觉判断,要尽量避免过于乐观;项目经理可以吸收和运用有关启发式认知偏向的知识,需要留有充分余地去化解项目中的不可控风险。

In the project management, heuristic cognitive bias has positive effect to improve the quality of their work. Apply- ing representativeness bias, availability bias, anchoring effect theory to illustrate an important impact on enterprise development. In the planning, project managers can not ignore the possible role of regression to the mean, before the implementation of specific incentive system, they need to go through study so that avoid the emergence of ＂bias＂ due to the hasty conclusion; Based on rational analysis, as well as requires a keen intuition to try to avoid to make overly optimistic mistakes; Project manager can absorb and use the knowledge of the heuristic cognitive bias, allow ing sufficient leeway to resolve uncontrollable risk factors in the project.