商品金融化形成机理研究

The Forming Mechanism of Commodity Financialization

利用总供给—总需求的宏观经济分析框架探寻了商品金融化的形成机理。利用VAR模型发现了大宗商品价格与宏观经济因素存在系统性关系,货币发行量会对商品价格产生正的冲击。从商品现货市场和商品衍生品市场来说明在商品金融化影响下商品市场出现的新的表现形式,就如何应对商品金融化趋势提出相应政策建议。

Under economy financialization,we used the macroeconomic analysis framework which was derived from aggregate supply-aggregate demand model to explore the formation mechanism of commodity financialization. Moreover,we used VAR model to study the systematic relationship between commodities and macroeconomic factors. The excessive money will have a positive impact on commodities' prices. In addition,we explain the new manifestations of the commodity markets from the aspects of both commodity spot market and derivative market under the influence of commodity financialization. In the end we conclude the above content and promote relative political suggestions to cope with commodity financialization.