挤入还是挤出:中国公共投资支出对居民消费的影响

Crowd in or out:Effect of Public Investment Expenditure on Consumption in China

本文用DVAR方法对中国公共投资支出对居民消费的影响进行了实证分析,中国公共投资支出挤入居民消费,在其冲击初期大幅度挤出私人投资,但在长期中小幅度挤入私人投资。基于DSGE模型进行理论模拟发现,公共投资支出通过其生产性和服务功能产生了挤入居民消费的效应,与贷款配套机制和私人资本调整成本一起使居民消费呈驼峰型增长;公共投资支出存在配套商业贷款,且基础设施的生产性存在滞后,使其在冲击初期大幅度挤出私人投资,而后由于劳动投入的增加和基础设施陆续投入使用,使私人投资在长期中缓慢恢复并小幅度增长。本文为公共投资支出是促进居民消费的有效财政措施提供了政策依据,并建议鼓励和引导私人资本进入基础设施建设领域。

This paper makes empirical study on public investment expenditure' s effect on consumption in China by using DVAR method.China' s public investment expenditure crowds in consumption and crowds out private investment significantly at beginning of its shock and in it weakly in the long run.The author build DSGE model to simulate theoretically and discovers: Firstly,public investment expenditure crowds in consumption by its productive property and service function and makes consumption increase in a hump-shaped way with matched loan mechanism and private capital adjusted cost;Secondly,with the delay of infrastructure productivity and a matched business loan,public investment expenditure crowds out private investment significantly at beginning of its shock and makes it restore slowly and grow weakly afterwards because labor input increases and infrastructure capital is gradually.This paper gives a policy basis that public investment expenditure is an effective fiscal policy for promoting consumption and advises that the government should actively encourage and guide private investment in infrastructure.