南方土壤墒情变化规律及动态预报研究——以江西省南康市、湖口县为例

The Changing Law and Dynamic Forecast of Soil Humidity in Nankang and Hukou Counties,Jiangxi Province

利用南康、湖口近20年的土壤墒情观测资料及气象资料,分析了两地土壤墒情变化规律,建立了土壤墒情动态预报模型,为土壤墒情预测提供新方法,为田间水分管理提供科学依据。结果表明,南康、湖口两地土壤墒情具有明显的年变化规律,总体趋势为汛期、冬春季土壤墒情值高,伏、秋时节土壤墒情值低。逐步回归分析土壤墒情变化与气象因子之间的关系,建立了两地分时段的土壤墒情预报模型,并对模型效果进行检验,结果表明各模型均达到了较好的预报精度。

Based on the observation data of soil humidity and meteorological data of Nankang and Hukou Counties in recent 20 years,the changing law of soil humidity in these areas was analyzed and the forecasting models for soil humidity were established,which provides a new method for soil humidity forecast and provides a scientific basis for field water management.The result indicates that the soil humidity in Nankang and Hukou shows an obvious annual variation,which is high in spring,winter and the flood season while low in dog days and autumn.The forecasting models for soil humidity in different periods of time are established by stepwise regression analysis.The testing results show that all of the models achieve an acceptable predicting precision.