基于能量守恒的生态系统预测模型研究

Study of forecasting model of ecosystem based on energy balance

随着人类社会的发展,全球生态系统受到人类活动的影响,因此,人们需要对生态系统进行监测并对其发展趋势进行预测。本文提出了一种基于能量守恒的生态环境动力学模型。该模型用能量的概念描述影响生态系统的因素,并将各种因素间的关系抽象描述为网络结构,进一步通过微分方程组描述上述网络节点之间的关系。从该方程组的求解结果中,能够得出生态系统中各因素的演化趋势,同时还可以对生态环境做出定性和定量的状况评估与预测,进而帮助决策者从各种影响因素中识别出关键因素,为环境保护提供决策依据。

Along with social＇s progressive development,human activities were having some detrimental effect on ecosystem.There is an urgent task for us to monitor current status of environment and forecast the future direction of the ecosystem development.An energy-balance based ecosystem model is proposed in this paper,in which the influential factors of ecosystem are considered as energy node and the whole ecosystem is described as a network structure.The relationship between the nodes in this network is described as a differential equation system.By solving the differential equation array and analyzing the solution,it is known that the status of environment and the future development trend of ecosystem.Moreover,through analyzing the trend and evaluating the health of ecosystem,decision-maker can distinguish the crucial factors and make environmental policy according these scientific data.